So what did I conclude? Well, I decided that MS reckons it faces a choice of evils. If it loses control of OpenXML, then it may face a slow erosion of Office market share as it becomes possible for users to buy competing products on an incremental or trial basis. On the other hand, if it loses the PR fight and comes across as too hostile to open standards, then there is a risk of government action.
Now government action is really the only thing a monopolist fears. Of course, it is sometimes possible to stop government action, even at the eleventh hour (as happened after the change of administration in the US, when the incoming Bush administration decided not to take any significant action against MS following the anti-trust proceedings). But governments do have almost unlimited power to intervene. The obvious danger in the OpenXML case has been that governments might mandate ODF for the public sector, which would almost certainly lead to a more rapid erosion of MS’s market share.
So the strategy appears to be twofold:
(1) proclaim loud and long that MS is now committed to open standards, and be prepared to make real moves in that direction;
(2) fight a tough rearguard action to make its actual commitment as weak as is compatible with not losing the PR war.
So it tries hard to convince the world: that the user benefits from an additional ISO/IEC standard; failing that, that there is no conflict with ODF because they address different areas/markets. If it fails to get OpenXML as an ISO/IEC standard, then it lobbies hard that IBM has been completely intransigent and it is not MS’ fault, so OpenXML should be an alternative to ODF.
In the absolute worst case, it would switch to ODF. But that moment would be delayed as long as possible and the switch would be as partial as possible (maybe ODF would be a possible format, but not the default format etc).
At this stage it is hard to see clearly all the tactics and possibilities under (2), but it is clear that every tiny skirmish will be hard fought.
Those were my conclusions yesterday. But I now think I got it wrong. Or rather I overlooked something. After all file formats are not the only barrier to entry. However, that will have to wait until another day.
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